Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Market Timing

This is my humble opinion, but now is the time to get back into the good ole stock market. Seems obvious but most people don't actually follow the age old axiom, Buy Low, Sell High. True, people have different time horizons and so if you heed anything I say here it is necessary to adjust the advice to your own expectations and plans.

I'm going to put myself out there and predict that this will be the last earnings season with overwhelmingly dismal results, i.e. time to buy. Why do I say this? Here are a few reasons:
- more and more economists are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel and are going on the record as such.
- recent run up in the market suggests confidence by institutional investors. They may have overshot and are pulling back now (current dip during earnings season) but the message is clear - those with the most information are getting back in.
- merger activity: Oracle's purchase of SunMicrosystems yesterday.
- some banks are reporting profits: BofA, Goldman, even Citi had some good news. Yes, there is a credit situation, but Americans are quick to forget hard times and I (and others) feel that spending will pick up.

So you say: what about the dragging Retail and Real Estate sectors? These two sectors are typically the last to recover in a downturn, particularly considering how much we overbuilt. It will take real estate a long time to come around.... But the market overall will not wait for housing.

So I am buying and thinking of buying the following:
- Index funds: VERY safe and merely follows the market (Vanguard and Fidelity can help you with this)
- Large Cap Growth funds: mutual funds investing in big and hopefully sound American companies
- Banks: This is my risky investment and for those light of heart, I don't recommend it. But honestly you wont see better deals than $8 for one of the largest banks in the country (BofA).

Overall, I'm going to play it safe by dipping my foot in for now. I'm not throwing big amounts at the above, just getting in so sleep at night continues in a sound way.

Those are my thoughts for the day. And I'd like to say that I'm happy to have had time to blog again....